The import price of the hottest wood pulp rises by

The import price of wood pulp rises by 46%. China may lose its pricing power

domestic imported inflation caused by the rise in the price of international raw materials is still spreading

according to customs statistics, in the first eight months of 2010, China imported 7.375 million tons of wood pulp, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5%, worth $5.64 billion, an increase of 30%, and the average import price was $764.4/ton, an increase of 63.5%

foreign invested enterprises are still the main body of China's paper raw materials import. In the first eight months of this year, foreign-invested enterprises imported 4.008 million tons of wood pulp, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%, accounting for 5% of the total imports of wood pulp, and insisted on experimental environmental sanitation of 4.3%. Private enterprises imported 1.408 million tons of wood pulp, a year-on-year decrease of 29.1%

at the same time, the price of household paper in major supermarkets in Beijing has increased significantly, generally by 10% - 20%. Some unknown brands taking the low price route have also joined the ranks of price increases

Shaoning, deputy director of SASAC, pointed out in a report meeting on November 3 that it is applicable to all environmental lighting. Due to the relatively large demand, when the domestic production capacity cannot keep up, it is expected that in the near future, wood pulp and oil will become industries controlled by foreign countries after soybeans and iron ore

whether the price rise of wood pulp is the same as that of iron ore and soybeans, and the loss of pricing power due to high external dependence has become the focus of the industry

Zhao Wei, Secretary General of the China Paper Association, told that as the paper industry is a highly market-oriented industry and China has relatively large import channels, as long as domestic production is strengthened, the degree of external dependence can be reduced

an analyst told that the frequency limit of wood pulp (needle 10) at the beginning of 2010 was 50 ~ 300Hz (the frequency can be greater than 300Hz); Lin) the price has been 810 US dollars/ton, and now it has risen to 960 US dollars/ton, while it was only 620 US dollars/ton at the beginning of last year, and it was 800 US dollars/ton by the end of 2009

at present, please re tension the tensioning wheel; The prices of coniferous pulp and broad-leaved pulp in the European market were $963.81/t and $870/T respectively, down $15 and $50/T from the highest point in the year, with an increase of 40.6% and 49.4% respectively in the year, still at a high level

Xiao Qun, an analyst at Huatai Securities, released a report that with the traditional peak season of the paper industry approaching in the fourth quarter, driven by strong demand, paper prices may rise further

according to the analysis of the customs, under the attraction of many factors such as China's strong paper consumption demand, the trend of foreign paper giants' expansion to China is quite obvious. Although countries have taken measures to restrict the export of wood pulp under the global tension of forest resources, with the transfer of international paper industry to domestic, China's wood pulp import demand continues to expand. In the case of large quantity and high price of imported wood pulp in China, the paper industry is heavily dependent on imported raw materials

Shaoning, deputy director of SASAC, pointed out in a report meeting on November 3 that as China's economic development far exceeds the world growth rate, some bulk commodities with relatively large demand and high import dependence should be vigilant against losing pricing power

it is understood that China's dependence on wood pulp imports is not low at present. Although foreign suppliers have not integrated to form a monopoly giant similar to iron ore, whether this situation will change still needs attention

according to the data of China Paper Association, the consumption of wood pulp in China in 2009 was about 79 million tons, of which the consumption of wood pulp and waste pulp were 18.66 million tons and 49.39 million tons respectively. The import volume accounts for a large proportion, with wood pulp import volume of 13.67 million tons and waste pulp import volume of 22 million tons. In 2009, the external dependence of wood pulp was 73%, which was almost the same as that of iron ore and soybeans

however, Zhao Wei told that 2009 was an extreme situation, because last year the price of wood pulp in the international market was relatively low and the domestic import volume was large. However, by 2010, the import volume of wood pulp began to decline, and this year's external dependence will also decline. Wood pulp has a high degree of marketization, and there are many foreign enterprises exporting to China. For the time being, it cannot be said that it can form an alliance of collective price increases

a Securities researcher also told that the external dependence of domestic wood pulp this year is about 50%, but it should be noted that China's current coniferous wood pulp is all dependent on imports, because domestic production is impossible

data show that China's wood pulp imports mainly come from Canada, Brazil, the United States and other countries. These countries are rich in coniferous forest resources such as pine trees. China raised the requirement of raising the forest coverage rate to 20% in the 11th five year plan. Whether it will be achieved will be known during the two sessions next year

in addition, the rise in the price of imported raw materials has affected domestic consumer prices. Louis Gao, a senior economist at the World Bank China Representative Office, told that due to imported inflation, rising labor costs and other factors, although the future price increase will not reach the perspective of hyperinflation, it will not maintain a relatively low level

he predicted that the price increase next year would be higher than this year. He suggested that the central bank further raise interest rates and change the current monetary policy from moderately loose to neutral and stable

Tang Jianwei, a senior financial analyst at the Bank of communications, judged that due to the long-term existence of potential inflationary pressures such as the increase in imported inflationary pressures, the range and space of price decline are relatively limited. The CPI in October increased by about 4.1% year-on-year, and the increase will exceed the 3.6% in September, hitting a new high this year. It is estimated that the annual CPI increase in 2010 will be about 3.1%. In the first half of 2011, prices may return to the rising channel, and there will be greater pressure on prices in the first half of next year